SMM December 5:
Overnight, LME lead opened higher at $1,998/mt. During the Asian session, it moved sideways around the daily average line. Entering the European session, due to LME lead destocking and bulls increasing positions, LME lead fluctuated upward, touching a high of $2,019.5/mt. Support at high levels was slightly weak, and it experienced a slight correction at the end of the session, finding support below the 20-day moving average, finally closing at $2,016/mt, up $17.5/mt, a gain of 0.88%. A large bullish candlestick was recorded.
Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2601 contract opened lower at 17,200 yuan/mt. During the session, it fluctuated upward with firm gains, directly rising to 17,350 yuan/mt, finding support at the 10-day moving average. Towards the end of the session, SHFE lead pulled back slightly, finally closing at 17,305 yuan/mt, up 120 yuan/mt, a gain of 0.7%. A small bullish candlestick with no lower shadow was formed.
Recently, primary lead smelters in regions such as Anhui, Jiangxi, and Yunnan are undergoing maintenance, leading to limited circulation of delivery brand supplies. Meanwhile, lead prices continued to be in the doldrums, with suppliers mostly holding prices firm for shipments. Some downstream enterprises preferred to use lead ingots from surrounding social warehouses, resulting in an expanded decline in social inventory. However, it is noteworthy that in-factory inventory at smelters in some mainstream lead ingot production areas has accumulated, and the next round of lead ingot delivery is on the agenda. If the spread between futures and spot prices widens subsequently, delivery brand supplies may be moved to delivery warehouses. Conversely, social inventory is likely to remain low. Additionally, the lead price trend also requires attention to the impact of environmental protection-related controls and raw material supply on the production of secondary lead smelters.
Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.
